The away starter's SIERA profile projects more favorably than the home starter's, a differential which contributes to the projected full game total of 9.61 runs. The home starter's less efficient SIERA profile suggests a higher probability of runs allowed.
The home lineup exhibits a wOBA advantage against the opposing starter's handedness, contributing to their projected 5.83 runs. This offensive strength, combined with the away team's projected 3.78 runs, drives the model's projection of 9.61 total runs. The Over 8.5 carries a 26.2% edge.