mlb - May 25, 2026 - 1:36 PM EDT

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays

38.5% EVOver 7.5 (-117)
The Pick
Over 7.5 (-117)
Expected Value
38.5%
Fair Odds
-117
Market Odds
-117
Sportsbook

The Rays' starting pitcher holds a SIERA advantage over the Orioles' starter, a statistical factor noted as favoring the away team. Both pitchers will face lineups with the potential to contribute to a high-scoring environment.

The model projects a combined 12.1 runs for this contest, with the Orioles contributing 6.23 runs and the Rays 5.87 runs. This projection significantly exceeds the market total of 7.5 runs. Sharp market action aligns with the home side, indicating potential offensive upside for Baltimore. Both bullpens are expected to be utilized, contributing to the elevated total.